Sunday, July 12, 2009

WEEKLY REPORT -- July 12, 2009



   HAMMERSMITH MARKETING LIMITED
-------------------------------------------------------------
WEEKLY ANIMAL/VEGETABLE PROTEIN MEAL REPORT         
                          July 12,  2009
-------------------------------------------------------------------

UK Rep Office: 196 Rose Street,  Unit 143,  Edinburgh EH2 4AT,  Scotland
UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577     Phone: 44.131.208.0508    Mobile:
44.7762.740.270
USA Phone:  1.646.502.8623   Fax:   1.212.504.8033    Argentina  Fax:
54.11.4032.0069
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944,
Nassau Bahamas.

Email:  
tradegroup@gmail.com    WWW:   hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
SKYPE: bacon39a
A GAFTA Member Corporation


SECTION 1 --  GRAINS AND VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
-------------------------------------------------------------------

We had another week of lower prices for corn and soybeans/soymeal.  The drop
in corn prices was mainly due to the fact that the weather is fine, growing
looks great and there was no reason for any panic buying.  Looking back at
past price trends, as long as the weather stays reasonable, the prices do
tend to drop during July and into August ---- and as we have seen many times
before the lowest prices of the year can come at harvest time.  However,
lots can happen from the weather in the USA between now and harvest so there
is still going to be lots of excitement in the market over the summer weeks.

Looking at soybean/soymeal prices there is still some concern in the market
that the 2009 crop may not be as good as expected due to the late planting
of quite a bit of the crop.  Of course, it is much to early to know what
effect the late planting has had but the experts all look back on what
happened in the past and take a good guess on what will happen this year and
some see a reduced soybean crop.

There is still a shortage of available soybeans for the July/September
period, so even though prices are dropping there is still a significant
premium for current soybeans and soymeal.

Without any bad weather news, drop in exports or bullish reports from the
USDA it would seem that the trend in prices should be to lower levels in the
near term with the longer term dependent on weather and such.


FOB factory or location specified ..  prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
----------------------------------------------------
Nola is New Orleans, Louisiana .. USA Gulf export port.

Corn  FOB Nola USA-------------------------USD  158/160 m/t
Corn FOB Argentina port-------------------USD  163/168 m/t
Corn FOB Brazil port-------------------------USD  172/177 m/t
Sorghum  FOB Nola USA-------------------USD  152/154 m/t

Soymeal  48 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD  438 Aug, 390 Oct
Soymeal  44 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD  427 Aug, 379 Oct
Soymeal Argentina  Rotterdam-----------USD  437/440 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina--------------------USD   392/397 m/t  Aug/Sep
Soymeal 48 Brazil  Rotterdam-------------USD  439/443 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil---------------------------USD  390/395 m/t  Aug/Sep
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB----------------------USD  425/430 m/t

Corn Gluten Feed  USA FOB Nola-------USD   102/108 m/t - July/Aug
Corn Gluten Meal  USA FOB Nola------- USD   660/670 m/t -  July/Aug
Corn gluten meal  Indian  60 pro----------USD  720/730 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
Corn gluten meal China 60 pro------------USD  680/700 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa


DDGS  36 profat  USA FOB Nola.---------USD  142/146 m/t - June/August

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD  450/460 m/t
Feather meal  80 protein----------------------USD  550/570 m/t
Poultry meal  57 pro, East Coast-----------USD  510/530 m/t -

---------------------------------------------------

The drop in prices for soymeal has caught up with the prices for other
protein meals from the USA.  This week we see meat and bone meal prices
indicated at least USD 40 m/t lower from the USA while 60 protein corn
gluten meal prices are down by as much USD 60 m/t from the USA.  Both corn
gluten feed and DDGS - while not really protein items - fell much lower too
as corn prices dropped in the USA.  The drop in corn gluten feed and DDGS
continues to be affected by the drop in domestic demand in the USA --- as
reported in previous weeks the demand for prepared feed for cattle drops off
in the USA in the summer due to the availability of grazing land for the
cattle.

The drop in protein prices has not as yet been seen in South American
markets since they are well sold for the next couple of months.  The big
worry will be that USA prices drop lower and buyers try to switch from South
American product to USA due to price differences.  When prices drop as much
as they are at present it is always a very high risk time for sellers with
existing contracts as buyers in some countries tend to want to renegotiate
prices in a falling market.

With the sudden drop in July/September protein prices, we are now seeing
prices all getting back in line for the balance of 2009 and the premium that
was being charged for July/Aug/Sep shipments should disappear in coming
weeks as buyer can move back to soymeal and reduce their demand back to
normal level for other proteins.

Prices for the 2 or 3 months will continue to be greatly affected by what is
expected in the USA crop for 2009, so we will still see lots of ups and
downs as the weather changes and the crops grow and mature.

For the moment all seems to be well and the trend for prices is to lower
levels.


SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN
------------------------------------------

The Peruvian government has announced that fishing will be allowed to
continue until July 20th to reach the maximum quota level of 3,500,000
catch --- this leaves just over 100,000 m/t still a available at this time.
With the catch falling off quite quickly it may be that the total quota will
not be caught.

These days the topic of conversation is the threat of an "El Nino" event
that could affect the next fishing season.  The experts have been watching
the water temperatures and there seems to be the thought that by September
we could be facing a serious problem.  However, these situations can change
quickly and it will be a few weeks before the experts can be certain on the
development of an El Nino and the effect that it may have.  Unfortunately,
just the concern over an El Nino can have an effect on prices as buyers try
to book now rather than risk a shortage in coming months.

Needless to say the fishmeal price is up again this week, as fishmeal prices
move in the opposite direction to the trend in world protein prices.
Fishmeal is a very specialized protein item that is dependent more on the
aquaculture industry worldwide and the fishmeal market situation in China
than on the factors that drive price trends for other protein items.

There is no on in the trade who is forecasting a drop in fishmeal prices -
every trade expert seems to be in agreement that we will see higher prices
for the balance of 2009.

--------------------------------------

Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.
---------------------------------
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
------------------------------------------------
Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $

FAQ basis 65 protein----------------1000/1010 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee----------------- 1000/1010 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee----------------- 1010/1020 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1020/1030 m/t

65/66 pro standard steam---------1040/1050 m/t
67 pro standard steam-------------1060/1070 m/t
67 pro 150  TVN----------------------1070/1080 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1080/1090 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1090/1100 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1100/1110 m/t

Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 650/700 m/t
Fish oil - crude drums--------------750/800 m/t


Very best regards
Wayne Bacon

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without
notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates

Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon


Thursday, July 09, 2009

Falling protein prices -- July 09/09

The expected drop in protein prices has finally happened with July/Aug/Sep
soymeal prices down this week by about USD 50 m/t. This drop in vegetable
protein prices has also finally hit corn gluten meal and we see USA prices
down by close to USD 60 m/t. DDGS is also down strongly but corn gluten
feed is steady since it is not really just a protein item.

Animal protein prices, like USA meat and bone meal, poultry meal and
feathermeal have not as yet moved lower but they will. South American animal
poultry price are still strong due to demand but are also expected to drop.

It looks like the only protein that is staying high is fishmeal but this is
a product specific situation that is due to the very limited supply at
present.

So, it looks like for now the trend for the nearby protein prices is to
lower levels for now but to steady prices after September.

Wayne Bacon


HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
UK Rep Office: Suite 143, 196 Rose St, Edinburgh EH2 4AT, Scotland, UK.
UK Phone:.....44.131.208.0508......Fax:....44.20.7681.1577
UK Mobile:....44.7762.740270.......Email:..wbacon@hammersmith.biz

USA:...Phone:..1.646.502.8623......Fax:....1.212.504.8033
EGYPT: Fax:...20.2.3536.5841..Argentina:....Fax:.54.11.4032.0069
SKYPE:........bacon39A........WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
.......................................................
Corporate office: Trident Serv., Kings Court, Bay St., PO Box N-3944,
Nassau, Bahamas.

A GAFTA member corporation

Sunday, July 05, 2009

WEEKLY REPORT -- JULY 05, 2009

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd

WEEKLY ANIMAL/VEGETABLE PROTEIN MEAL REPORT July 05, 2009

(a
Bahamas Corporation)

UK Rep Office: 196 Rose Street, Unit 143, Edinburgh EH2 4AT, Scotland

UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577 Phone: 44.131.208.0508 Mobile:
44.7762.740.270

USA Phone: 1.646.502.8623 Fax: 1.212.504.8033 Argentina Fax:
54.11.4032.0069

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944,
Nassau Bahamas.

Email: tradegroup@gmail.com WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com

SKYPE: bacon39a

A GAFTA Member Corporation

SECTION 1 -- GRAINS AND VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

This week was a short week in the USA with Friday being a holiday for the
USA Independence Day. With a shorter work week and a longer weekend the
last trading day of the week tends to get exciting and this week was no
exception ---- everything seemed to be lower on Thursday. Corn and soybeans
dropped as did soymeal. For the week we did end up with corn prices down by
about USD 15/16 m/t but both soybeans and soymeal, for the old crop, were
higher on the week.

The large spread in price on soybeans and soymeal between July and September
still does exist but will shrink the closer that we get to the 2009 USA
harvest. The USDA report earlier in the week was not too much of a surprise
to the market. USDA reports are always at least somewhat of a surprise and
do then tend to cause the market prices to jump or dip but unless the
reports are a major surprise the market just continues on in the price
direction established.

Looking at the USA growing situation, the forecasts for the next few days
seem to show good overall growing weather and with a good forecast prices
would normally slide a little lower. We will probably not see much more
price weakness in any old crop prices but new crop for corn and soybeans
could move lower with continued good weather.

FOB factory or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

Nola is New Orleans, Louisiana .. USA Gulf export port.

Corn FOB Nola USA-------------------------USD 160/162 m/t

Corn FOB Argentina port-------------------USD 169/171 m/t

Corn FOB Brazil port-------------------------USD 180/182 m/t

Sorghum FOB Nola USA-------------------USD 152/154 m/t

Soymeal 48 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD 488 July/Aug, 420 Oct

Soymeal 44 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD 477 July/Aug, 409 Oct

Soymeal Argentina Rotterdam-----------USD 457/460 m/t

Soymeal FOB Argentina--------------------USD 425/428 m/t Aug/Sep

Soymeal 48 Brazil Rotterdam-------------USD 463/466 m/t

Soymeal FOB Brazil---------------------------USD 426/430 m/t Aug/Sep

Soymeal 48 Indian FOB----------------------USD 450/455 m/t

Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB Nola-------USD 115/120 m/t - July/Aug

Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB Nola------- USD 720/730 m/t - July/Aug

Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro-----------USD 760/770 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
port

Corn gluten meal China 60 pro--------------USD 700/720 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
port

DDGS 36 profat USA FOB Nola.---------USD 153/156 m/t - June/August

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 520/530 m/t

Feather meal 80 protein----------------------USD 560/590 m/t

Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast-----------USD 510/530 m/t -

---------------------------------------------------

It looks like the very best feed ingredient these days could be USA origin
DDGS, with 36 profat and a steadily dropping price it certainly competes
very well with both corn and soymeal. In the USA the demand for DDGS in the
feed ration drops in the summer months but the production of ethanol and its
by-product DDGS just keeps in going this, of course, results in a larger
available supply of DDGS for the reduced demand. Export demand has been
very good for DDGS but still not enough to make up for the drop in USA
domestic demand. It is expected that the low price for DDGS versus corn and
soymeal could continue for the next few weeks which makes it a great
summertime bargain.

We have also seen a drop in the other corn related items: corn gluten meal
and corn gluten feed, both of which have slipped a little lower as corn
prices have dipped. We still see corn gluten meal as being very expensive
but as long as other protein items are prices high there will not be a great
deal of weakness in CGM. Once we get into the soybean harvest months and
soymeal prices drop to a much more reasonable level, as can be seen by the
CBOT futures prices, then we should see some weakness in the export CGM
price.

It has been reported out of Egypt that all the rejected lots of meat and
bone meal from South America have been successfully resold to other
destinations, so importers have been able to recover at least some of their
costs. Prices were said to be in the USD 360 m/t CNF Vietnam for many of
the shipments --- far below the importers original purchase price but much
better than the total loss that they faced in Egypt.

We have not said much about meat and bone meal in the past couple of weeks.
That is because our main market was to Egypt an with no current shipments to
Egypt there is not much that we can say. In the past we have not done any
meat and bone meal business to Asia or the Far East but due entirely to the
re-exports from Egypt we are receiving a great many more inquiries from
those regions ---- perhaps we may expand our business to cover that area.

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN

------------------------------------------

I have not as yet seen the final fishing figures for last week but we must
be very close to having filled the fishing quota for the period. The last
report that I had showed only about 10m tons of fish to go and even though
catches had dropped it would not take too long to catch that small quantity.

Over the next few weeks we will certainly hear what everyone thinks about
the fishing season and how the new Peruvian quota system worked --- some
will say bad and other will say good. In total I think that the industry
will feel that the system is better than that which existed in the past but
it will take a little time until the quota system is adjusted a little and
performs as well as the designers wanted. However, it does seem to be going
in the right direction.

Speaking of direction, prices have found theirs and it seems to be to higher
levels. There was a report published this week on the internet that
forecasted fishmeal prices to be at least 10 percent higher in coming weeks.
This is not all that surprising as the world supply of fishmeal is quite low
and the overall demand has been very good. Peru, in particular, has very
limited supplies of fishmeal to last for the next 4 months or so with no
major fishing.

Price have moved up by about USD 20 m/t in the past week or so with the
upward pressure on the higher grades pushing some grades even higher.
Because the higher quality grades are produced in much smaller quantities it
is easy for these price to jump on a rise in demand.

We have been talking quite a bit about USA Menhaden fishmeal for the past
couple of reports and this remains a very cost competitive product - at
least in the short term. The quality is very good, the specs are great and
the TVN and histamine is very low --- for some buyers the USA fishmeal can
be a problem due to the 12 pct max fat and the limited packaging
alternatives - 50 kg bags being very, very expensive compared to bulk
containers. Overall a great product at a very good price if you can use
bulk or one ton bags.

--------------------------------------

Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.


ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS


Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $

FAQ basis 65 protein----------------980/990 m/t

FAQ 65 protein gtee-----------------980/990 m/t

FAQ 66 protein gtee-----------------990/1000 m/t

FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1000/1010 m/t

65/66 pro standard steam---------1010/1020 m/t

67 pro standard steam-------------1030/1040 m/t

67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1050/1060 m/t

67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1060/1070 m/t

67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1070/1080 m/t

67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1080/1090 m/t

Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 650/700 m/t

Fish oil - crude drums--------------750/800 m/t

Very best regards

Wayne Bacon

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without
notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates

Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon