Saturday, March 23, 2024

Weekly Report --- March 23, 2024

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 23, 2024

 

USA wheat prices were stronger this week, moving up by USD 9 to 10 m/t. Corn prices did very little for the week while soybeans had a down day on Friday dropping about USD 7 m/t and ended lower on the week by about USD 3 m/t. Soymeal was also weak on Friday but finished the week up by about USD 4 m/t.

 

US wheat prices were higher due to the action of the EU in approving an import tariff on Russian grains. The new EU tariff pushed European wheat prices up by about USD 8 m/t and had the same effect on US wheat prices. If Russian wheat is priced out if the EU market due to the new tariffs, the domestic demand for EU wheat will increase which could mean reduced EU wheat exports and the possibility of increased US wheat exports.

 

There was not much in the corn market to affect prices this week although lowered estimates for the Argentina corn crop was bullish but didn’t seem to affect prices. Corn still looks to be a little bearish but could move to bullish depending on the Brazil crop estimates for the later corn crop.

 

While soybeans were lower there didn’t seem to be much reason for the weakness. Some trade reports suggested that the weakness in soybeans is due to the expectation of higher levels in next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions report.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$32.00

Up $5.00

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Up $5.00

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$28.00

Up $3.00

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$28.00

Up $3.00

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$29.00

Up $3.00

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$40.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$36.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$42.00

Steady

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$51.00

New

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$59.00

Up $5.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$58.00

Up $5.00

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$47.00

Steady

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$35.00

Down $1.00

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$30.00

Up $2.00

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$29.00

Up $2.00

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$00.00

Closed

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$00.00

Closed

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$74.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$40.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$35.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$62.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$59.00

Up $5.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$60.00

Up $5.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$29.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$62.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Down $1.00

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$29.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$62.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$50.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$53.00

Up $1.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$54.00

Up $1.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$49.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$55.00

Up $1.00

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$64.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$65 Russia

Ukraine $66

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$59 Russia

Ukraine $77

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$22 Russia

Ukraine $30

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$24 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$57 Russia

Ukraine $62

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$27 Russia

Ukraine $37

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$33 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$32 Russia

Ukraine $39

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$33 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$46 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$19 Russia

Ukraine $25

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$28.00

Down $2.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$83.00

Steady

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$65.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

2196

Down 178

 

Baltic Capesize Index

3482

Down 537

 

Baltic Panamax Index

2365

Up 131

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1383

Up 57

 

Baltic Handisize Index

795

up 14

 

 

 

 

 

Global Container Index - Freightos

2623

Down 245

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2024/June 2024

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 228<<231 July   

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 262>>257 July      

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 192>>185 July

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 203>>198 July 

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 215<<225 July   

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

USD 218/221 Spot      

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 220<<230 July     

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 180/185      

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 205/210

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 190/195

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 170/175

X

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 235/240

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 195<<200 July 

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 219<<225 July  

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 192>>187 July  

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 195<<200 July 

x

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

USD 212<<217 July

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 192<<197 July

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 175<<180 July

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 172<<178 July

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 280/290

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 259>>252 June

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 395>>390 July  

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 425>>420 July  

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 385>>380 July     

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 435/440

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 375<<380 July 

X

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 460<<465 July

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 430<<435 July

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 435>>450 July

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 430<<440 July

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 560/570

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 210/220

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225>>220 July

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

  Little or no catch in the Southern fishing area of Peru. The total now is only 77 m/t against the 251,000 m/t quota. The fishing fleet is now reported to be on hold until after Easter.

 

Reports say that the current IMARPE research cruise is showing good biomass levels but very high levels of juvenile anchovy.

 

Fishmeal prices for the next season seem to have weakened a little. There is really very little activity in buying/selling the next season, so prices seem to be just drifting a little with no good reason for any lower prices.

 

Trade reports continue to be full of comments on the El Nino situation --- mainly because that is about all there is to talk about these days.

 

Reports are also speculating on the next North Central quota with estimate in a very wide range from 1.5 million m/t to 3.0 mm/t. At this moment it is all just guessing with no facts to work on except the past quotas over a bunch of years. And, the trade reports lean toward early April as the start of the new season – another guess.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,720

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,945

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,900

Chile fishmeal

66% protein

1,920

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

1,900

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1600/1620

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1700/1720

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1800/1820

1770/1790

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1900/1900

1870/1890

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

2030/2050

2000/2020

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

12,000+

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon