HAMMERSMITH MARKETING LIMITED
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WEEKLY ANIMAL/VEGETABLE PROTEIN MEAL REPORT
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UK Rep Office: 196 Rose Street, Unit 143, Edinburgh EH2 4AT, Scotland
UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577 Phone: 44.131.208.0508 Mobile:
44.7762.740.270
USA Phone: 1.646.502.8623 Fax: 1.212.504.8033 Argentina Fax:
54.11.4032.0069
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944,
Nassau Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@gmail.com WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
SKYPE: bacon39a
A GAFTA Member Corporation
SECTION 1 -- GRAINS AND VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
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We had another week of lower prices for corn and soybeans/soymeal. The drop
in corn prices was mainly due to the fact that the weather is fine, growing
looks great and there was no reason for any panic buying. Looking back at
past price trends, as long as the weather stays reasonable, the prices do
tend to drop during July and into August ---- and as we have seen many times
before the lowest prices of the year can come at harvest time. However,
lots can happen from the weather in the USA between now and harvest so there
is still going to be lots of excitement in the market over the summer weeks.
Looking at soybean/soymeal prices there is still some concern in the market
that the 2009 crop may not be as good as expected due to the late planting
of quite a bit of the crop. Of course, it is much to early to know what
effect the late planting has had but the experts all look back on what
happened in the past and take a good guess on what will happen this year and
some see a reduced soybean crop.
There is still a shortage of available soybeans for the July/September
period, so even though prices are dropping there is still a significant
premium for current soybeans and soymeal.
Without any bad weather news, drop in exports or bullish reports from the
USDA it would seem that the trend in prices should be to lower levels in the
near term with the longer term dependent on weather and such.
FOB factory or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
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Nola is New Orleans, Louisiana .. USA Gulf export port.
Corn FOB Nola USA-------------------------USD 158/160 m/t
Corn FOB Argentina port-------------------USD 163/168 m/t
Corn FOB Brazil port-------------------------USD 172/177 m/t
Sorghum FOB Nola USA-------------------USD 152/154 m/t
Soymeal 48 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD 438 Aug, 390 Oct
Soymeal 44 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD 427 Aug, 379 Oct
Soymeal Argentina Rotterdam-----------USD 437/440 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina--------------------USD 392/397 m/t Aug/Sep
Soymeal 48 Brazil Rotterdam-------------USD 439/443 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil---------------------------USD 390/395 m/t Aug/Sep
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB----------------------USD 425/430 m/t
Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB Nola-------USD 102/108 m/t - July/Aug
Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB Nola------- USD 660/670 m/t - July/Aug
Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro----------USD 720/730 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
Corn gluten meal China 60 pro------------USD 680/700 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
DDGS 36 profat USA FOB Nola.---------USD 142/146 m/t - June/August
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 450/460 m/t
Feather meal 80 protein----------------------USD 550/570 m/t
Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast-----------USD 510/530 m/t -
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The drop in prices for soymeal has caught up with the prices for other
protein meals from the USA. This week we see meat and bone meal prices
indicated at least USD 40 m/t lower from the USA while 60 protein corn
gluten meal prices are down by as much USD 60 m/t from the USA. Both corn
gluten feed and DDGS - while not really protein items - fell much lower too
as corn prices dropped in the USA. The drop in corn gluten feed and DDGS
continues to be affected by the drop in domestic demand in the USA --- as
reported in previous weeks the demand for prepared feed for cattle drops off
in the USA in the summer due to the availability of grazing land for the
cattle.
The drop in protein prices has not as yet been seen in South American
markets since they are well sold for the next couple of months. The big
worry will be that USA prices drop lower and buyers try to switch from South
American product to USA due to price differences. When prices drop as much
as they are at present it is always a very high risk time for sellers with
existing contracts as buyers in some countries tend to want to renegotiate
prices in a falling market.
With the sudden drop in July/September protein prices, we are now seeing
prices all getting back in line for the balance of 2009 and the premium that
was being charged for July/Aug/Sep shipments should disappear in coming
weeks as buyer can move back to soymeal and reduce their demand back to
normal level for other proteins.
Prices for the 2 or 3 months will continue to be greatly affected by what is
expected in the USA crop for 2009, so we will still see lots of ups and
downs as the weather changes and the crops grow and mature.
For the moment all seems to be well and the trend for prices is to lower
levels.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN
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The Peruvian government has announced that fishing will be allowed to
continue until July 20th to reach the maximum quota level of 3,500,000
catch --- this leaves just over 100,000 m/t still a available at this time.
With the catch falling off quite quickly it may be that the total quota will
not be caught.
These days the topic of conversation is the threat of an "El Nino" event
that could affect the next fishing season. The experts have been watching
the water temperatures and there seems to be the thought that by September
we could be facing a serious problem. However, these situations can change
quickly and it will be a few weeks before the experts can be certain on the
development of an El Nino and the effect that it may have. Unfortunately,
just the concern over an El Nino can have an effect on prices as buyers try
to book now rather than risk a shortage in coming months.
Needless to say the fishmeal price is up again this week, as fishmeal prices
move in the opposite direction to the trend in world protein prices.
Fishmeal is a very specialized protein item that is dependent more on the
aquaculture industry worldwide and the fishmeal market situation in China
than on the factors that drive price trends for other protein items.
There is no on in the trade who is forecasting a drop in fishmeal prices -
every trade expert seems to be in agreement that we will see higher prices
for the balance of 2009.
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Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.
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ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
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Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $
FAQ basis 65 protein----------------1000/1010 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee----------------- 1000/1010 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee----------------- 1010/1020 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1020/1030 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam---------1040/1050 m/t
67 pro standard steam-------------1060/1070 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1070/1080 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1080/1090 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1090/1100 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1100/1110 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 650/700 m/t
Fish oil - crude drums--------------750/800 m/t
Very best regards
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without
notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon

