HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
--------------------------------------
WEEKLY FEED GRAINS AND PROTEIN MEAL REPORT
December 19, 2009
France: Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564
UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577 Phone: 44.131.208.0508
Mobile: 44.7762.740.270
USA Phone: 1.646.502.8623 Fax: 1.212.504.8033
Argentina Fax: 54.11.4032.0069
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
SKYPE: bacon39a
A GAFTA Member Corporation
SECTION 1 -- FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
We have quite a long holiday period coming up in a large chunk of the world
with both Christmas and New Year celebrations affecting many countries.
Even the information that I use to prepare this weekly report is going to be
much more difficult for accumulate as many of the regular trade reports will
be stopped for up to two weeks. If I can get all the information that I
need to do the weekly report then I will still issue one each week but if
not then I guess I will have a quiet holiday too.
Looking at the USA grain, oilseed, protein meal markets this week, we see
that not too much happened to corn prices as the week ended quite close to
last week. Seems that whenever prices for corn drop there are lots of
buyers and when it move a little higher there are lots of sellers --- so for
now we seem to be in a balance. Traders are saying that not much is
expected to happen over the next couple of weeks but that corn could move
higher in early 2010.
On the soybean/soymeal side, we had a down week and most experts seem to
feel that this market is the one with the greatest risk/chance of falling
prices. When you look at what is expected with the crop in South America
and the record levels that everyone expect than it is easy to see why the
experts feel that there is room to go lower, some say much lower.
As I have been saying for the last few weeks, the price trends in early 2010
should come from what is happening in Argentina and Brazil on the supply
side and probably from China for soybeans on the demand side.
But again, the next couple of weeks should be quiet but prices do tend to
jump around a lot during holiday times --- if so then all will get back to
normal come January.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
-------------------------------------------------------------
Corn FOB NOLA USA-------------------------USD 181/183 m/t
Corn FOB Argentina port--------------------USD 178/180 m/t
Corn FOB Brazil port--------------------------USD 184/186 m/t
Sorghum FOB NOLA USA-------------------USD 184/186 m/t
Soymeal 48 pro, FOB NOLA----------------USD 377 Jan, 374 Feb, 369 Mar
Soymeal 44 pro, FOB NOLA----------------USD 366 Jan, 363 Feb, 358 Mar
Soymeal Argentina - Rotterdam------------USD 413/415 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina----------------------USD 370/372 m/t Jan/Mar
Soymeal 48 Brazil - Rotterdam-------------USD 422/424 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil----------------------------USD 384>>345 m/t Jan/Mar
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB-----------------------USD 440/450
Bulk vessel shipments - minimum 5000 m/t
------------------------------------
Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB NOLA-------USD 135/140 m/t - Dec-Feb
Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB NOLA------- USD 665/670 m/t - Dec-Feb
DDGS 36 profat USA FOB NOLA.---------USD 171>>163 m/t - Dec-Feb
Container shipments - minimum 200 m/t
-------------------------------------
Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro----------USD 840/860 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
Corn gluten meal USA 60 pro --------------USD 830/840 m/t CNF South Africa
The following indications are at producer's factory - ex-works in bulk
-------------------------------------------
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 410/420 m/t
Feather meal 80 protein----------------------USD 500/520 m/t
Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast-----------USD 420/440 m/t
---------------------------------------------------
Tough days in the protein meal business these days as prices are just not
dropping lower as everyone had been expecting. Part of the problem is the
demand that has swung from fishmeal to all other proteins which is keeping
corn gluten meal, poultry meal, feather meal and meat and bone meal quite
strong. However, the price of soymeal is not falling as quickly as everyone
had expected - this since near term demand for soybeans and soymeal is very
good and, for now, the USA is about the only supplier in the soybean/soymeal
business. Yes there are other small supplying countries but not at present
able to export much --- Argentina and Brazil are out of the market at
present but as we can see by the prices indicated in coming months there
should be a sudden drop in soymeal/bean prices in March/April/May when the
South American crop comes online.
Some of the Asian demand for animal protein has dropped off a little --
not because there is no demand but more because it is coming to the end of
the year and importers, end-users, banks, finance houses are all trying to
keep new business at a minimum until they get into 2010.
There are still a lot of people looking for South American meat and bone
meal, blood meal, feathermeal but at this moment most are just looking and
don't plan on doing any booking before early 2010.
Of course with Christmas and New Year coming and many producers and buyers
closed for several days, it is expected that the next couple of weeks will
be very quiet both from a selling and buying point of view.
Quite often during long holiday periods we see crazy things happen to prices
and to markets as, with few people active in the market, it takes very
little to push prices quite a way up or down ( but usually up )
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN
------------------------------------------
It is very hard to believe but the prices shown below are the latest prices
that I have been able to find in Peru --- I think that these are probably
the highest prices ever asked for Peruvian fishmeal. I don't have any
customers who are willing to pay these prices but I guess if I was a buyer
who needed a couple of hundred tons to complete a vessel shipment then I
would be quite willing to pay to avoid leaving room on my vessel --- or
perhaps not as a the cost of dead-freight is probably less than the premium
you would have to pay for the extra tons.
I don't know if anyone is actually paying the prices quoted below, certainly
my fishmeal users are not. And, I also don't know if there is actually
fishmeal available at this price level or if traders and exporters are just
throwing out high prices in the hopes of catching a buyer who must buy.
Looking at the fishing in Peru, it is drawing to a close and will finish in
the next few days. Many of the larger fleets have finished their quota for
the season are in back in port, so this just leaves the smaller guys to
finish off their quotas and head home for the holidays.
For now there does not seem to be any reason to expect prices to drop much
but I don't think that fishmeal can support these record high prices for
very long. It is at the point now where buyers who have good stocks are
reselling at current high price levels in order to make a quick USD 200 or
so a ton on the assumption that they will be able to buy again in a few
weeks at a lower price --- perhaps they are correct.
As for my buyers - they don't want any fishmeal.
--------------------------------------
Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $
FAQ basis 65 protein----------------1530/1540 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee----------------- 1530/1540 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee----------------- 1540/1550 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1550/1560 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam---------1540/1550 m/t
67 pro standard steam-------------1550/1560 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1600/1610 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1610/1620 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1620/1630 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1630/1640 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 850/870 m/t
Fish oil - crude flexitank-----------910/930 m/t
Fish oil - crude drums--------------950/970 m/t
Fish oil - Omega 3 gtee ---------- 1300/1350 m/t
Very best regards
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without
notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon
